If you go back into the 12th, 14th, 15th centuries, all these catastrophes of weather and so forth have happened before the Industrial Revolution. With satellite imagery and storm tracking 3 to 5 day forecasts have become better but only in a regional sense. The smaller the target area the less chance of being right. Long range regional forecasting is all but impossible with any degree of accuracy for there is nothing linear about the weather. If all the pre-conceptions of the climate models were erased and all the cyclical knowns from ice cores, bore holes,geology ,raw temp data from long term thermometers and all other useful cyclic data such as solar and planetary mechanics.
This would give our super computers something useful to chew on. The output would give us our place in the cycles and be useful on a decadal ,century and millenium scale. They are at the moment p ing into the wind and getting back on their faces. I have been doing long-term weather predictions for awhile now. When I say awhile, I do mean just shy of 2 years, and I can attest to the difficulty in getting in correct all the time.
This is because most of my weather predictions for outside of MO. If I had more free-time, I would not extrapolate based on just MO, because as anyone else who does this will tell you, that is a rather poor substitute for locking down jet-streams, and patterns. Lots of storms. Summer: Very dry and just a little warmer then average. Fall will be normal. I make more precice predictions, but that is just my basics.. I got last fall wrong. The winter I nailed for MO. One of those things…. Midwest was nailed, but I was slightly wrong for Pacific NW. I have a lot of work to do obviously.
Not sure how they predicted the SE US, that was a surprise to me and most others too. I learned, and I am fairly confident of my predictions for the coming year. Six months is a general limit I would say overall as anything past that can really go downhill quickly. But preliminary work has shown next winter to be worse then this last just take that to mean colder at this point. Again, preliminary, its going to depend on how ENSO goes into summer.
The world's most viewed site on global warming and climate change
Also, tracking other factors is going to be a large job. Overall I tend to look at previous years a lot as an indication.
- Modelling morphological response of large tidal inlet systems to sea level rise.
- About this book!
You have to go quite a ways back to find similarities. He absolutely was worried about those years and devoted at least one full video to the subject, and how they could be indicative of a tougher winter ahead. Philip Tetlock of Univ. When it comes to predicting the future, the best and wisest of humankind are blind men groping in the dark.
Ridiculously unreasonable. Bastardi is one of the brightest long rangers on the planet and quite frankly….
Maybe if you had followed his forecasts VERY closely over the past 7 years like some of us have, you would not even need to ask the stupid question that you ask. The burden to figure it all out join Accuweather and subscribe to their archives is on you. Bastardi has DONE his work. Would be interested to see if you could forecast…. I thought so. Well, then I think you have wasted the mental exercise. The current view is that it was the closing of the isthmus of Panama that lead to the current period of ice ages. I mean really, dude.
I certainly respect your posts in the past…but you are over the top on this one. You need to pick your battles a little more wisely. William Gray, April 9 In reply to your question, would you be referring to Inigo Jones and later on, his assistant Lennox Walker? Bastardi nailed the USA winter forecast beginning back in July of when the CFS and the last time I checked at that time was predicting nothing of the sort… It was pretty damn good. And on a side note….
Joe B being a good scientist…. But the conclusion of this thread…which conflates the model-driven asleep-at-the-wheel approach of the UKMET and their failed forecasts over these last years…. How can we objectively compare the Farmers Almanac forecast to the Accuweather Forecast to see which one has better quality? Why is it unreasonable to ask for a standardized accounting of forecasting accuracy and skill? Sort of.
Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard
I am already well into the development of the: WUWT US Weather Prediction Page which will bring together an array of weather forecasts, allowing for easier comparisons across. I guess what I am reacting to here is your broad-brush approach as it all of these entities are equal. They are not. Some are privately funded.
As a taxpayer, you can make all the demands on the taxpayer-funded science organizations you want and you should and I support it and I demand the same thing! But for the private science organizations such as Accuweather you are not a contributor and most likely not a shareholder and so theoretically, you have no say so. They could even proclaim that unicorn populations in the Arctic are the cause of the the fluctuations of the AO over time… They may be wrong, and they may lose business because they are wrong…but that is the free market system.
But even if they are wrong….
The other commenters on this thread who asked for the same information. You need to fight your own battles and let Joe fight his. He is plenty capable….
Long-range forecasts of UK winter hydrology - IOPscience
They are much appreciated. YOUR logical error…. If you want openness and transparency…then you are in good company with him. At this point, perhaps after apologizing to him, you guys could be good friends. Long term predictions will presumably require the ability to predict several key game changers a few months in advance, unless conditions are such that few game changers will affect the outcome to any great extent. If you assume that game changers include: 1.
CMEs and solar flares. Oceanic shifts in ENSO. Blocking highs. AO indices. Etc etc. There will obviously need to be some pretty deep understanding of the sun, the oceans, the atmosphere etc etc and how they all interact, dynamically.
Long-Range Dependence and Sea Level Forecasting
I suspect that you will be able to predict extreme oscillations from means, but it is questionable whether we have nearly enough data, models and theories to cover less extreme scenarios. Particularly if small changes in key parameters have global effects on climate, how easy is that ever going to be to predict?
Yes keith Minto thankyou. Its interesting to observe that the Farmers Almanac used the planets positions as well. Daily maps posted three years ago and for the next three years at name link. These effects are due to the production of the primary and secondary tidal bulges in the atmosphere, that arrive at the same time as the ion content of the air masses reaches a local maximum. Link to the tornado severe pages for NOAA. So what were the Earth wind speed levels and World cloud cover levels in last years? With forecasting the solar factors, everything else follows, including volcanoes and circulation patterns, largely by seeing how they respond to different solar driven temperature levels and changes through the seasons.
But the volcanoes part makes me wonder, when it often takes weeks, months and sometimes years for magma to make it to the surface after it starts moving and breaking rock. Signaled by deep earthquakes as you know. But long-range climate is simple to predict! Obviously, the answer is to run our climate models for 3 to 6 months instead of 50 years. Just plot a climate trend that matches your needs, and then take the straight edge and draw the trend out indefinitely.
He uses a technique based on solar and lunar factors that is applied to both weather forecasting and earthquake forecasting. Piers shows long-range Top Red and Extra Top Red warnings in his subscription forecasts for the coming months but will post them a few days before the actual event on his website for non-subscribers as a free public service. It listed the high risk days for earthquakes as April 6 through 9, and the website updates of the April 7, earthquakes magnitude 6.
He gets criticized for not publishing his very successful methods, but considering he is running a business, why should he give away his trade secrets for free? Those conditions are set up by a fall appearing La Nina.
That tells you what the coming growing season will be like. With the advent of the La Nina last fall, anyone with agricultural sense was singing in October for next Summer irrigation, and crying for frost killed early crops.